US Recession Score

US Recession Score is a MacroChart composite that tracks how close the U.S. macro backdrop is to recession conditions on a monthly basis. NBER dates recessions after the fact; this score is meant to approximate that regime in real time.

It is not an official NBER call. The right way to use it is as an early-warning overlay that checks whether labor, production, income and consumption are deteriorating at the same time.

The current model combines Sahm Rule level, 6-month change in unemployment, negative payroll YoY change, negative industrial production YoY change, negative real personal income YoY change, negative real personal consumption YoY change. In the training sample, precision is 67% and recall is 60%.

• Higher readings mean the macro backdrop looks closer to recession conditions.
• A sharp rise matters more when unemployment, production and income are weakening together.
• It works best alongside the Sahm Rule and jobless-claims indicators.