Philadelphia Fed SPF forecast accuracy

Compare current-year, one-year-ahead, and two-year-ahead errors within the same indicator.

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Source: Philadelphia Fed SPF
Philadelphia Fed SPF 4
pairs 4 indicators
1 countries Latest vintage: 2025 Q4

Philadelphia Fed SPF

4 forecast-history pairs are tracked here.

Inflation, prix à la consommation (% annuel)

Unit: %

Série Temporelle
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
États-Unis
USA
0.40% 0.96% 1.33% 0.10% 32% 2021 Q4 170 2024 Q4 View history

PIB ($ US courants)

Unit: US$

Série Temporelle
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
États-Unis
USA
$411.90B $506.34B - -$414.43B 46% 2019 Q4 170 2024 Q4 View history

Croissance du PIB (% annuel)

Unit: %

Série Temporelle
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
États-Unis
USA
1.22% 1.24% 1.13% -0.08% 26% 2022 Q4 170 2024 Q4 View history

Chômage, total (% de la population active)

Unit: %

Série Temporelle
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
États-Unis
USA
0.17% 0.68% 0.94% -0.07% 30% 2022 Q4 140 2025 Q4 View history