US Recession Regime

US Recession Regime converts the recession score into a 0/1 regime series. A value of 1 means the model sees recession-like conditions above its estimated threshold, while 0 means the threshold has not been crossed.

It is not an official NBER recession declaration. It is a compact regime overlay designed to compare past and current macro conditions on the same scale.

The model is built from Sahm Rule level, 6-month change in unemployment, negative payroll YoY change, negative industrial production YoY change, negative real personal income YoY change, negative real personal consumption YoY change. In sample, precision is 67% and recall is 60%.

• Watch the switch from 0 to 1 together with the score itself.
• The series is most useful as a regime overlay rather than a standalone forecast.
• It becomes more convincing when labor and production indicators are weakening at the same time.