Philadelphia Fed SPF forecast accuracy

Compare current-year, one-year-ahead, and two-year-ahead errors within the same indicator.

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Source: Philadelphia Fed SPF
Philadelphia Fed SPF 4
pairs 4 indicators
1 countries Latest vintage: 2025 Q4

Philadelphia Fed SPF

4 forecast-history pairs are tracked here.

인플레이션, 소비자 물가 (연간 %)

Unit: %

시계열
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
미국
USA
0.40% 0.96% 1.33% 0.10% 32% 2021 Q4 170 2024 Q4 View history

GDP (현재 미국$)

Unit: US$

시계열
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
미국
USA
$411.90B $506.34B - -$414.43B 46% 2019 Q4 170 2024 Q4 View history

GDP 성장률 (연간 %)

Unit: %

시계열
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
미국
USA
1.22% 1.24% 1.13% -0.08% 26% 2022 Q4 170 2024 Q4 View history

실업률, 전체 (전체 노동력의 %)

Unit: %

시계열
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
미국
USA
0.17% 0.68% 0.94% -0.07% 30% 2022 Q4 140 2025 Q4 View history