Fed dot plot history
Track each FOMC SEP dot plot back to 2012, compare the full distribution by meeting, and see how the median path and dispersion shifted over time.
Dot distribution
Circle size shows how many FOMC participants put the policy-rate dot at that level for that projection year.
Median path by meeting
This compares the median dot for the current year, next year, second year, and longer run across each SEP meeting.
Hawkish-dovish shift and dispersion
Bars show how much the average policy path shifted versus the previous SEP. The line tracks the dispersion of the current-year dots.
Market reaction after each SEP meeting
Bars show the S&P 500 move over the five trading days after the meeting versus the close before the meeting. The line shows the same-day move in the 10Y Treasury yield.
Dot shift vs equity reaction
Each dot is one SEP meeting. The x-axis is the shift in the Fed dot path versus the previous SEP, and the y-axis is the S&P 500 move over the next five trading days. Larger circles indicate bigger same-day VIX reactions.