Казначейский долг, принадлежащий населению

Treasury Holdings by the Public

Treasury holdings by the public refers to an indicator measuring the balance of government bonds (Treasury securities) issued by the U.S. government that are held by the private sector and foreign investors, excluding government agencies such as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) and the Social Security Trust Fund. It is expressed in dollars as the total government debt balance minus the portion held by government agencies.

This indicator is important because it reflects the actual fiscal situation of the United States. The portion held by government agencies merely represents internal government fund transfers, so the publicly held portion represents true government debt liabilities. If this balance increases, the interest payment burden on U.S. Treasury bonds held by the private sector increases, suggesting government fiscal deterioration. Additionally, there are concerns about potential upward pressure on interest rates and impacts on inflation.

As a general trend, publicly held Treasury debt balance has shown a long-term upward trajectory. Particularly since the 2008 financial crisis, it increased rapidly due to the FRB's quantitative easing policies. During the 2020 coronavirus crisis, it surged again due to increased government spending. Currently, approximately 75-80% of total government debt is held by the public, with its scale exceeding 100% of GDP.

Key attention points include the relationship between this balance and long-term interest rates. If investors shun U.S. Treasury bonds when this balance increases, interest rates will rise and government interest burdens will increase, potentially creating a vicious cycle. Additionally, changes in the holdings ratio of foreign investors (particularly China and Japan) also affect exchange rates and U.S. capital markets, making this an important subject for monitoring.