Базовый индекс цен PCE, консенсус-прогноз за месяц

About Core PCE Month-over-Month Consensus

Core PCE Month-over-Month Consensus is an economic indicator showing the average forecast of economists and analysts regarding the month-over-month change rate of the core portion of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator, excluding food and energy. This indicator aims to more stably capture price changes in goods and services that US consumers actually pay for.

This indicator is important because it is crucial for assessing US price trends. Food and energy prices are highly volatile and easily influenced by temporary factors, so excluding them allows for a more accurate understanding of underlying inflationary pressures. In particular, the Federal Reserve Board (the US central bank), which emphasizes price trends as a basis for monetary policy decisions, regards this Core PCE indicator as one of the most important price indicators it monitors.

The consensus value (average expert forecast) becomes a market movement factor when it diverges from actual announced values. If higher-than-expected inflation is indicated, expectations for interest rate increases rise; if lower than expected, expectations for interest rate maintenance or cuts emerge. This directly affects the US dollar exchange rate and stock and bond markets, making it an extremely high-profile indicator in international financial markets.

Generally, a continuous month-over-month increase of approximately 0.3-0.5% is considered a level indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. Market participants use comparison between consensus values and actual results to predict the Federal Reserve's next policy decision and adjust their positions accordingly.