Консенсус базового ИПЦ за месяц

About Core CPI Month-over-Month Consensus

Core CPI Month-over-Month Consensus refers to the average market expectation of how much the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy (Core CPI) will fluctuate month-over-month, as predicted by market participants and economists. This indicator measures "underlying inflationary pressures" by excluding food and energy, which have large fluctuations, to capture the substantive price changes experienced by average consumers in daily life.

This indicator is important because it significantly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Central banks worldwide prioritize Core CPI when assessing the sustainability of inflation. Food and energy prices are susceptible to supply shocks and exchange rate fluctuations, with frequent temporary variations, so Core CPI, which reflects more stable price trends, is used as a reference for policy decisions. The level at which market participants' consensus expectations (consensus) are set becomes a factor that can cause unexpected market movements through divergence from actual announced values.

As a general trend, Core CPI is being closely monitored in developed nations during the process of inflation moderation. When consensus is too high and the actual announced value falls short, expectations for monetary easing tend to increase, and markets tend to rise. Conversely, when announced values significantly exceed expectations amid low consensus, observations of monetary tightening can cause markets to fall. Movements in this indicator trigger correlated movements across stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and bond markets, positioning it as an extremely important indicator for investment decisions.