Неопределенность по инфляции SCE за 1 год ФРБ Нью-Йорка

# NY Fed SCE 1-Year Ahead Inflation Uncertainty

NY Fed SCE 1-Year Ahead Inflation Uncertainty is an indicator that, as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, measures the degree of uncertainty consumers feel regarding the potential range of inflation rate changes over the coming year. Specifically, by calculating the standard deviation of inflation rates that consumers expect, it quantifies the level of uncertainty or lack of certainty in inflation forecasting.

This indicator is important because inflation uncertainty has significant effects on economic activity. When the outlook for inflation rates is unclear, companies tend to refrain from capital investment and hiring, and consumers may suppress spending. It also affects the central bank's policy judgments. When inflation uncertainty increases, monetary policy stances typically become more cautious, which has spillover effects throughout interest rates and financial markets.

As a general trend, this indicator tends to remain at low levels during periods of economic stability. Conversely, during economic crises or environments where inflation fluctuates rapidly, this indicator shows an upward trend. Particularly during the period of rapid inflation from 2021 to 2022, consumer inflation uncertainty increased significantly. Investors and analysts closely watch increases in this indicator as a sign of economic instability, and it serves as a valuable information source for predicting shifts in monetary policy.