Europe
The main macro story is the return of energy-price risk. Oil moving above $100 after conflicting claims around US-Iran talks has reversed an earlier market move lower and sharpened concerns that the Middle East conflict could spill further into fuel, transport and utility costs.
That matters directly for Europe, where governments are again under pressure to shield households from higher bills. In the UK, ministers are signalling targeted support for those most exposed, even as the energy cap is still due to lower typical household gas and electricity bills by 7% from 1 April 2026.
Ireland has moved more immediately, cutting excise duty on petrol and diesel in a step aimed at softening the hit from higher pump prices. The broader policy question across Europe is how far governments can cushion consumers without adding to fiscal strain or blunting incentives to conserve energy.
Away from energy, company and public-service headlines add to a sense of strain in the operating environment. Meta has been ordered to pay $375m over misleading users on child safety, highlighting the financial and regulatory risks facing large platforms, while Epic Games is cutting another 1,000 jobs as it struggles with Fortnite.
In the UK, allegations from Royal Mail staff that post was hidden to make delivery targets appear met raise fresh questions about service quality and accountability in essential networks. These stories are different in kind, but together they reflect a tougher backdrop of cost pressure, weaker confidence and closer scrutiny from courts, regulators and customers.
For Europe’s economy, the key implication is that a renewed energy shock could slow growth, complicate disinflation and keep policymakers cautious even where headline household bills are set to fall. Markets will be watching whether higher oil feeds through into broader inflation expectations, consumer spending and fiscal responses in the months ahead.