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Treasury Average Interest Expense Rate (Interest-Bearing Debt)

【Indicator Definition and Measurement Content】Treasury average interest expense rate is an indicator that measures the average interest rate level paid by the U.S. government on interest-bearing government bonds in its possession. This indicator reflects the actual average interest rate being paid on all interest-bearing debt (bonds with interest coupons) issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It includes bonds ranging from short-term to long-term maturities and is calculated as a weighted average across the entire portfolio.

【Importance and Economic Significance】This indicator is extremely important for understanding the actual costs of U.S. government debt management. If interest rate levels rise, government interest payment expenses increase, creating pressure for fiscal deficit expansion. Conversely, if interest rates decline, interest payment burdens are alleviated. Additionally, this indicator reflects the market interest rate environment and serves as a barometer for visualizing the impact of the Federal Reserve Board's (FRB) interest rate policy. Furthermore, the inflation environment and dollar exchange rate trends also indirectly exert influence.

【Recent Trends and Key Attention Points】In recent years, this indicator has shown an upward trend, with the impact of the FRB's aggressive interest rate increases since 2022 being particularly pronounced. Notably, from 2023 through 2024, it has reached its highest levels in several decades. This increase has caused government interest payment expenses to increase substantially, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. Investors and policymakers use this indicator to evaluate U.S. fiscal soundness and as a reference point for determining future economic policies.