ECB SPF forecast accuracy

Compare current-year, one-year-ahead, and two-year-ahead errors within the same indicator.

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Source: ECB SPF
ECB SPF 3
pairs 3 indicators
1 countries Latest vintage: 2025 Q4

ECB SPF

3 forecast-history pairs are tracked here.

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

Unit: %

Time Series
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
Euro area
EMU
0.49% 1.19% 1.46% -0.56% 41% 2021 Q4 100 2024 Q4 View history

GDP growth (annual %)

Unit: %

Time Series
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
Euro area
EMU
0.70% 1.43% 1.74% 0.55% 24% 2018 Q4 100 2024 Q4 View history

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)

Unit: %

Time Series
Country Current-year MAE 1-year MAE 2-year MAE 1-year average error 1-year direction miss Latest direction miss 1-year observations Latest vintage View history
Euro area
EMU
0.28% 0.64% 0.93% -0.01% 52% 2024 Q4 104 2025 Q4 View history