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NY Fed SCE Household Spending Expectations

This indicator, one component of the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the NY Fed, expresses as a percentage the expected value of how much household spending will increase or decrease over the next 12 months. The survey targets individual consumers across the United States, with data collected on a regular basis.

This indicator is important because consumption comprises approximately 70% of the overall U.S. economy, making expected consumption spending a critical leading indicator for forecasting overall economic trends. It significantly influences business investment decisions and monetary policymakers' policy decisions. Additionally, by capturing changes in consumer sentiment in a timely manner, it becomes possible to detect inflation or deflation risks and signs of economic recession at an early stage.

As a general trend, household spending expectations tend to rise during periods of strong economic performance and fall when the economy deteriorates. Particularly noteworthy are periods when this indicator rises or falls sharply. Rapid increases suggest risks of overheating inflation due to accelerated consumption, while sharp declines suggest concerns about economic deterioration. Furthermore, changes in income and employment conditions, movements in interest rate levels, and correlation with consumer confidence indices are also important analytical factors.