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NY Fed SCE 1-Year Ahead Wage Growth Expectations

【Measurement of the Indicator】

The NY Fed SCE Expected Earnings Growth is an indicator measured in the "Survey of Consumer Expectations," a household survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which measures expectations regarding how much respondents anticipate their wages will increase over the next 12 months. This survey is conducted monthly and presents the expected wage growth values for households across the United States as a percentage.

【Importance of the Indicator】

This indicator is important for several reasons. First, it plays a crucial role in forecasting inflation trends. When wage growth expectations rise, workers tend to adjust their behavior in anticipation of price increases, which could lead to a spiral of inflation. Second, it serves as a leading indicator of the strength of the labor market. Rising wage growth expectations suggest that the labor market is tightening and workers' bargaining power is strengthening. Third, it serves as input for monetary policy decisions. Central banks closely monitor such expectation trends and use them as reference points when determining interest rate policy.

【General Trends and Key Points to Watch】

Looking at the past decade, this indicator has generally moved relatively stably. However, from 2021 to 2022, wage growth expectations rose amid supply constraints and accelerating inflation, drawing significant attention. Particularly during the high inflation period of 2022, household wage growth expectations reached the 3-4% range, creating pressure for monetary policy tightening. It is noteworthy that this indicator is more sensitive than actual wage growth and strongly reflects market sentiment. Continuous monitoring is important for understanding future inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy decisions.