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NY Fed SCE Delinquency Expectations

The NY Fed SCE Delinquency Expectations is an item in the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, measuring the probability that households believe they will experience late payments on credit cards or loans over the next 12 months. It is displayed as an aggregated percentage of respondents' subjective expectations.

The importance of this indicator can be explained from multiple perspectives. First, it reflects household perceptions of their creditworthiness, which suggests psychological attitudes toward future economic conditions and income prospects. A rise in delinquency expectations serves as a warning signal that households are facing economic hardship. Second, this indicator tends to lead actual credit delinquency rates and is useful for assessing risks to the financial system. It suggests that household finances may already be strained before banks tighten lending standards. Third, it functions as a leading indicator for predicting future changes in consumption spending and credit demand.

As a general trend, delinquency expectations tend to decline during periods of strong economic performance and rise during economic downturns. During the pandemic in 2020, expectations surged sharply but subsequently declined with economic recovery. Points of note include the correlation with actual unemployment rates and consumer confidence indices, as well as comparisons with realized delinquency rates. Sharp fluctuations in this indicator signal significant changes in consumer psychology, making it an important monitoring target for investors and policymakers.