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Long-rate vs policy-rate spread Long rate 0.25pt below policy rate US Equities x Inflation x Policy S&P 500, CPI, Fed funds USD/JPY x US-Japan Rates USD/JPY and rate gaps Housing x Affordability x Rates House prices, affordability, rates Euro Inflation x ECB Rates x M3 HICP, ECB rates, M3 Oil x Euro Inflation x ECB Rates Brent, HICP, ECB rates Commodities x Food x Inflation Commodity, food, HICP Gold x US Equities x Policy Gold, equities, rates Euro Housing x Unemployment x ECB Rates Housing, unemployment, ECB rates Metals x Leading Index x Industry Metals, CLI, industrial output Europe Gas x Euro Inflation x ECB Rates EU gas, HICP, ECB rates

How to Read This Pair

A short summary of how this signal tended to show up before recessions and where it stands now.

Takeaway

When this gap moves at or below -0.250, it has tended to appear before recessions, but it is not active now.

Before past recessions

Ahead of the Lehman recession, this signal turned on in 2007-07, 5 months before the recession started. There were 1 other triggers in the prior 36 months. It picked up 6 of the last 8 US recessions. After the signal turned on, recession followed within 12 months 40% of the time, with a median lead of 8 months.

Current state

The latest reading is 0.486, so the at or below -0.250 threshold has not been triggered yet.

Comparison Chart

1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y Max
United States / 10-Year Treasury Yield 1962-01-02 - 2026-03-30 / 16044 obs / Daily / Release lag 4d
United States / 10-Year Treasury Yield

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