United States / Continuing Jobless Claims
1967-01-07 - 2026-03-14
/ 3089 obs
/ Weekly
/ Release lag 13d
Macro Workspace
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Continuing jobless claims + Initial jobless claims
All 2 signals on together
Continuing jobless claims + Housing starts + Initial jobless claims
2 of 3 signals on together
Continuing jobless claims + Housing starts
All 2 signals on together
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House prices, affordability, rates
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HICP, ECB rates, M3
Oil x Euro Inflation x ECB Rates
Brent, HICP, ECB rates
Commodities x Food x Inflation
Commodity, food, HICP
Gold x US Equities x Policy
Gold, equities, rates
Euro Housing x Unemployment x ECB Rates
Housing, unemployment, ECB rates
Metals x Leading Index x Industry
Metals, CLI, industrial output
Europe Gas x Euro Inflation x ECB Rates
EU gas, HICP, ECB rates
How to Read This Pair
A short summary of how this signal tended to show up before recessions and where it stands now.
Takeaway
When at least 2 of these 2 signals are on together, it has tended to show up before recessions, but it is off now.
Before past recessions
Ahead of the Lehman recession, this signal turned on in 2007-11, 1 months before the recession started. There were no extra triggers in the prior 36 months. It was still on when the recession began. Components: Continuing claims z-score above 1.5 / Initial claims z-score above 0.5. It picked up 5 of the last 8 US recessions. After the composite turned on, recession followed within 12 months 56% of the time, with a median lead of 2 months.
Current state
0 of 2 component signals are currently active.
Comparison Chart
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