Europe
The main macro signal is that Europe remains exposed to another external cost shock, with JP Morgan expecting oil to stay in the low $100s for the rest of the year even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens next month. That keeps pressure on fuel, transport and household energy costs at a time when European inflation risks had been easing only gradually.
The geopolitical backdrop is also feeding into business expectations. A group of 17 US executives, including Elon Musk and Tim Cook, are expected to join Donald Trump on a trip to China, underscoring how trade, investment and supply-chain decisions remain closely tied to top-level diplomacy between Washington and Beijing.
In the UK, consumer-facing sectors are adjusting in different ways. TikTok has launched a £3.99 ad-free subscription, while users who stay on the free version will see personalised ads by default, reflecting the continued push to diversify revenues as competition for consumer spending and digital advertising remains intense.
The energy sector is also seeing consolidation pressure. Ovo customers have been told not to panic over a planned takeover, with existing tariffs set to be honoured in full under a deal that could create one of Britain’s largest energy suppliers.
Meanwhile, Heathrow said passenger numbers fell to 6.7 million in April amid the Iran conflict, suggesting geopolitical tensions are already affecting travel flows. Together, these developments matter because sustained energy costs, weaker transport demand and heightened global uncertainty can weigh on growth, complicate inflation trends and keep policymakers and markets alert to renewed downside risks.