US
The main macro message is that the U.S. economy is showing a more uncomfortable combination of persistent price pressure and softer underlying growth. February producer prices rose 0.7% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7%, reinforcing concerns that inflation is not easing cleanly as activity slows.
That picture was underscored by January inflation data, with core PCE at 3.1%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target. Together, the GDP revision and firm inflation readings suggest policymakers are not getting the benign mix of cooling prices and resilient growth that would make rate cuts straightforward.
Energy is a central part of the story. Oil’s rise toward $100 a barrel has intensified concern that higher fuel costs could spread through transportation and consumer prices, while also squeezing household budgets and business margins. CNBC also reported that gig workers, including drivers and delivery workers, are already feeling the hit from gasoline prices reaching a 21-month high.
Against that backdrop, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury is not intervening in oil commodities markets and does not have the authority to do so, pushing back on speculation about direct action to cap prices. At the same time, geopolitical and economic tensions remain in focus after President Donald Trump signaled a possible delay to a Beijing summit as Washington presses China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil flows.
The broader concern is that these developments are feeding a stagflation debate: growth is losing momentum just as inflation risks are being revived by energy and upstream price pressures. That matters because it complicates Fed policy, raises the risk of tighter financial conditions for longer, and leaves markets more sensitive to every data release on inflation, growth and oil.