OECD Manufacturing Export Order Books

OECD Manufacturing Export Orders Diffusion Index

The OECD Manufacturing Export Orders Diffusion Index (DI) is an indicator showing the status of export orders among manufacturing enterprises in OECD member countries. It is calculated by subtracting the percentage of enterprises reporting that orders are decreasing from the percentage reporting that orders are increasing, displayed on a scale ranging from -100 to +100. A positive value indicates an upward trend in export orders, while a negative value indicates a downward trend.

This indicator is important for several reasons. First, export orders function as a forward-looking economic indicator that precedes future production activity and corporate earnings. When orders increase, actual export growth several months later is likely to follow, making this useful for forecasting economic trends. Second, it reflects global economic conditions and serves as an important clue when assessing the strength or weakness of the world economy. Third, as it aggregates data from multiple OECD member countries, it provides more reliable statistical information than individual country data.

As a general trend, during periods of global economic expansion, the export orders DI tends to rise, and during periods of recession, it tends to fall. It declined sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and returned to positive territory during the subsequent recovery phase. An important observation point is whether the index exceeds the zero line (neutral line), as sustained positive values suggest stable economic growth in the world. Additionally, significant fluctuations in values or abrupt changes in direction can reflect global supply chain disruptions or geopolitical risks.