متوسط ​​توقعات التضخم لبنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في نيويورك لـ SCE خلال عام واحد

NY Fed SCE 1-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations

The 1-year ahead inflation expectations from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is an indicator that shows what rate of inflation general consumers expect over the coming one year. Conducted monthly, the survey aggregates the median values collected from households across the nation, making it an important component of consumer sentiment.

There are multiple reasons why this indicator is important. First, consumer inflation expectations influence actual pricing behavior and wage negotiations, which can subsequently impact the actual inflation rate. When expected inflation rises, companies find it easier to raise prices, and workers tend to demand higher wage increases. Second, it is essential information for understanding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. If the central bank cannot maintain inflation expectations at an appropriate level, achieving the goal of price stability becomes difficult.

As a general trend, this indicator tends to move in line with financial market expectations and actual inflation dynamics. During the period of rapid inflation from 2021 to 2022, consumer inflation expectations also rose significantly, heightening market participants' vigilance. Key points to watch include whether expectations are anchored, meaning whether they remain stable. When expectations fluctuate easily, the risk of a price-wage spiral increases, prompting policy authorities to monitor the situation carefully.