تركيا توقعات أسعار المستهلك في منظمة التعاون الاقتصادي والتنمية

About the OECD Household Inflation Expectations Diffusion Index (DI)

The OECD Household Inflation Expectations Diffusion Index is an indicator that measures the degree to which households in OECD member countries expect prices to rise in the future. In this survey, consumers are asked questions such as "Do you think prices will rise or fall over the next year?" and a balance value is calculated based on the proportion of respondents. The balance value is calculated by subtracting the proportion who answered "fall" from the proportion who answered "rise," with larger positive values indicating stronger expectations of price increases.

This indicator is important because household inflation expectations have a significant impact on actual consumer spending and saving behavior. Households expecting price increases tend to have higher purchasing intent and increase current spending. On the other hand, if inflation expectations rise excessively, it may lead to further price increases and result in an inflationary spiral. For central banks and policymakers, controlling household inflation expectations is an important factor that influences the effectiveness of monetary policy, perhaps even more so than controlling actual inflation rates.

As a general trend, since 2021 when global inflationary pressures intensified, this DI has increased significantly in many OECD member countries. A key point to note is the divergence from actual inflation rates. When household inflation expectations are excessively high, central banks in each country face pressure to operate policies carefully to bring down those expectations. Additionally, differences in expectations by region and age group are analyzed and serve as foundational information for more detailed economic policymaking.